Although Ankara’s relations with some of its neighbors (particularly Greece) have been tense in recent years, the generous earthquake assistance that these nations have almost universally offered is shifting Turkish public perceptions dramatically. Yet this scenario seems utterly unlikely at the moment. Technically, the constitution permits the government to postpone elections for up to a year under one circumstance: if the country is at war. This would give the country nearly 120 days to prepare-though many of the obstacles described above would still be present. Given that Erdogan’s proposed May 14 date was never formalized, and considering the amount of relief work and election preparations that need to be carried out in the south, political parties may agree to hold the elections as late as possible, meaning June 18 or just before. Postponement ScenariosĪccording to the Turkish constitution, the next parliamentary and presidential elections have to be held no later than five years after the previous polls held in June 2018, resulting in this year’s deadline of June 18. The earthquake also demolished major infrastructure in numerous southern cities, especially Antakya and Kahramanmaras, making it unlikely that life will return to normal in these areas for months, if not years, to come. All of this movement and chaos will create complications for electoral boards when issuing ballots, among other difficulties. Many survivors are moving to temporary shelters and tent/container cities and will eventually be relocated many others are leaving the area indefinitely. Over 15 percent of Turkey’s 85 million citizens live in the immediate earthquake zone, where around 7,000 buildings have collapsed and tens of thousands more have become inhabitable. Yet the sheer size of the subsequent disaster would make it extremely challenging to prepare for a nationwide poll in less than ninety days, even aside from the personal and emotional obstacles to dealing with electoral matters amid such a tragedy. On January 21, just two weeks before the earthquake, Erdogan signaled that the dual parliamentary and presidential elections could be held on May 14. Will President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attempt to postpone the polls up to or beyond this deadline, and if so, what implications would this hold for Turkish sociopolitical dynamics? Logistical Challenges to Holding Elections Within the context of those efforts, however, Ankara will face a practical political challenge as well: determining whether and when to hold this year’s presidential and parliamentary elections, which are legally required to take place on or before June 18 per the country’s constitution. The country’s most pressing challenge is to provide relief for the more than 13 million citizens who live in areas directly impacted by the tremors. In addition to numerous casualties in neighboring Syria, over 31,000 people have lost their lives in Turkey as of February 13, while at least 80,000 have been injured and millions may have been left homeless. The earthquake that struck ten southern Turkish provinces on February 6 will be remembered as the country’s worst humanitarian disaster in modern history. Once Ankara meets the initial challenge of determining an election date amid unimaginable human tragedy, it will face a campaign season dominated by debates over the conduct of relief efforts and the government’s level of responsibility for the growing death toll.
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